On October 15, 2009
Predicting the 2020 EV Market: Consider the Wild Cards
It’s always fun to predict the future, and the beauty is that if you are projecting far enough ahead no one’s likely to remember what you’d said—even if turned out to be egregiously wrong. How many battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and just plain hybrids will sell in 2020? I can make only educated guesses, which is also the case for Lux Research, which just released its latest report, “Unplugging the Hype Around Electric Vehicles.” In that study, it predicts the size of the market based on different oil-price scenarios. Roughly, the higher the oil price, the more EVs will be sold. If oil reaches $200 a barrel by 2020, for instance, Lux thinks that light plug-in hybrids will be…
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