Promises You Should Never Believe (or Make)

Promises, promises. Are you still waiting for flu shots after making an appointment, then learning that the vaccine is not available?

The Obama administration announced that more vaccine was coming when it wasn’t. US HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius explained why to an Associated Press reporter, “We were relying on the manufacturers to give us their numbers and as soon as we got numbers we put them out to the public. It does appear now that those numbers were overly rosy.”

Where have we heard that before?

Overly rosy promises are regularly offered by politicians, manufacturers, car salespeople, real estate agents, and nearly anyone trying to influence anyone else. Promises are the stuff of courtship or reassurance, particularly when people would rather deny the downside. Entrepreneurs urged to sell to a large corporation are often told that the big company wants to learn from them, a promise that dissolves after the deal is done. Bernard Madoff victims apparently preferred illusion to digging for facts.

This human tendency is exacerbated by systemic complexity. Economists know that forecasting is a dangerous occupation, especially about the future — which is funny but not a joke. In complex systems, inherent uncertainty joins with volatility to increase the likelihood that forecasts fall short. Boeing learned this at the cost of lost customer orders for its much-delayed Dreamliner aircraft. It is a common experience that new products often take longer and cost more.

Related to the difficulties of delivering on time and on budget are other promises that should never be taken at face value:

“We want you to be a change agent and shake things up.”

Bosses and boards often espouse change as a desirable goal but less often embrace its implications — e.g., firing old hands, closing or selling historically-core assets, or challenging organizational assumptions. Officials generally like things stirred but not shaken (unlike James Bond’s martini). So if you are told that you’ve been hired or assigned to shake things up in the interests of change, don’t believe it — even if it’s clear that a turnaround is necessary.

This promise tastes dust the minute controversy surfaces. Controversy is embarrassing, time-consuming, and takes eyes off the situation needing change and onto the personality of the change agent. Carly Fiorina and Larry Summers experienced this during their days as short-lived agents of change at HP and Harvard, respectively. The Anne Mulcahy route is better: first win people over by applauding (not trashing) tradition. At Xerox, Mulcahy solidified relationships and honored history before making dramatic change.

“The check is in the mail.”

Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. Odds are that it goes into the mail after the check-receiver asks the check-issuer where it is. In a world of overload, deadlines and due dates can easily become occasions for starting the action, not completing it. CEOs know that they are more likely to get the report they request several times than the report committed to verbally but without follow up.

Delay is common when trying to get that promised check, even when resources have been set aside. As change agents know, just because the funding or information or meeting has been promised doesn’t mean that it will be delivered on time. Try buying a product that promises a rebate, and see how many hoops you have to go through to get on the list for the rebate and request it in cash rather than future-purchase credits. It’s not much easier for people trying to get something done inside an organization.

Promises, promises. Change requires patience and long-term systemic thinking, seasoned with a grain of salt.

But lest we turn into a nation of cynics, promises should be kept realistic from the start. Leaders should be courageous about revealing that they don’t control everything and don’t know exactly how the future will unfold. The one promise they can reliably keep is to communicate often, with alternative scenarios in mind. In general, under-promising and over-delivering produces much more delight than over-promising and under-delivering. We are so braced for disappointment that a happy surprise stands out.

A dose of reality can be healthy. Although maybe not as healthy as a flu shot. So tell me again, Secretary Sebelius: Just when will that vaccine be ready?