Apple’s Next Revolution — And What You Can Learn From It

It’s September 2010, and you just finished my new ebook, Constructive Capitalism, on your iPad. You’re about to email me, and tell me that I’m a sorry, tree-hugging excuse for an economist — but first, the FT, New York Times, and the Economist ping you; they’ve all got new video reports about evil companies you’re shorting.

Welcome to Apple’s Next Revolution. It’s the Appleverse — and in it, media is once again beginning to survive, see the first tender shoots of growth, and even to innovate.

Rumours have been swirling for some months now about an Apple tablet. Yet, so far, it seems suspiciously underpowered for a “real” computer. What’s the score? It’s the same flavour of disruption Apple’s already wrought twice. First, it was music. Then, it was mobile. Next, it might be everything formerly known as books, music, and video (or what media bankers quaintly call “BMV.” Ah, beancounters). I think Apple’s going to use the combination of a tailor-made device and an open market to turn BMV upside down.

I believe the Appleverse will look something like iTunes, and the App Store — except for all things BMV. Newspapers, magazines, blogs, movies, TV programs, and, yes, books — all will be available in a Media Store. Sellers will benefit from new revenue streams, thanks to people who actually want to buy media once again, whether through subscriptions or transactions; buyers will benefit from choice, simplicity, and richness. New flavours of magazines, books, newspapers, and video programs will emerge, and publishers will fight hard to win those new markets. And all that promises once again to breathe life into a beleaguered industry: for more than a decade now, BMV has struggled to meet the challenges of the 21st Century. If the Media Store succeeds, the next-gen media industry will essentially be dominated by Google on the WWW, and Apple everywhere else.

That’s radical. Because just a short decade ago, Apple was a has-been, the slowest kid in the school of corporate strategy. Today, it is one of the world’s most valuable companies. So what can we learn from Apple’s new found mastery of next-generation strategy?

Markets, networks, and communities are engines of disruption. As I’ve advised for many years: the future of strategy lies in markets, networks, and communities. They allow us to rewire what yesterday were known as value chains into complex webs of production and consumption. What is common to both Apple and Google is growing mastery over utilizing markets, and sometimes networks, to dramatically rewire production and consumption, unlocking tremendous efficiency gains.

Context is king. Context is information about the value of stuff. Orthodox publishers fight hard against context — they game reviews, buy rankings, stifle leaks — you know the score. Amazon commoditized publishers by making context open source: anyone can write a book review, and anyone can read anyone else’s book reviews. In the Appleverse, those dynamics will be writ large. All content will be on a level playing field — just one click away — and so context will be even more crucial to shaping consumer decisions.

21st century economics = acceleration. If the Media Store is a success, like the App Store, it’s going to be disruptive — fast. 21st Century economics hinge on viral and network effects. When we get them right, tremendous positive feedback occurs, that can shatter yesterday’s status quo, in a matter of months, like this guy did — or simply witness mobile operators and orthodox handset manufacturers, like Nokia, playing by Apple’s new rules. Conversely, when we get acceleration wrong, the result is strategic implosion: banks amplified each others’ negative viral effects — and a few short months later: kaboom.

What challenges will Apple face? The challenges every market-maker faces.

Pricing. Apple’s big weakness in iTunes and the App Store is pricing. Static, one-size-fits all pricing is a poor fit with a vast sea of content, whose value is always shifting.

Market microstructure. Apple has had serious issues with approving Apps. Many small developers have felt short-changed. To an extent, Apple is ensuring buyers don’t sell lemons. Yet, that process must be faster, smarter, and more inclusive.

Unbundling. Why are iTunes and the iPod tied? Why are the App Store and the iPhone tied? Because Steve’s a stickler for a painless experience. Yet, at some point, even Apple will have to cede to the efficiency and productivity gains that flow from services unbundled from devices.

And now, for the big kahuna.

Thick value. Markets, networks, and communities are cool, and strategy is fun. But the real challenge of the 21st Century is thick value: authentic, sustainable value.

Whether it’s radio, TV, magazines, or newspapers, it seems often that yesterday’s mass media industry has devolved to shock, endless ads, and lowest-common-denominator schlock. Never was there — perhaps save Detroit — an industry who so quickly and decisively sacrificed quality, integrity, and utility for near-term profitability.

Opening the floodgates through an open market is innovative — radically so. But raising the bar for insanely great media of all kinds to be produced, once again — well, that’s the key not just to mere innovation, but to awesomeness.

And that’s the key question. In the Appleverse, is media still lame — or is it awesome?

Innovation can make the Appleverse industry-changing. But it is awesomeness that will determine whether the Appleverse is world-changing or not. Guess which one’s more profitable, disruptive, and sustainable?

Fire away with comments, criticisms, question, or thoughts.