Both traditional and social media have declared MySpace dead. Even a brief scan of articles reveals that media mavens "don't know anybody who uses MySpace anymore," which reportedly is not a huge loss as the site "is ridden by spammers" and "its atrocious HTML, bLiNgY graphics, and horrific backgrounds" are offensive. Many of you reading this post probably do not know anyone who uses the site either.

Yet MySpace is the 11th most visited site in the world, with unique 60 to 70 million U.S. visitors every month. Even though the site is not growing, it is a far cry from "dead" if you ask me. So, how is it possible for so many millions of people to use MySpace and for no-one to know anyone who does? One possibility is that those who opine on the state of social media don't use MySpace and neither do their friends. After all, MySpace users are younger and reportedly less well-off than average news makers. Another possibility is that MySpace users are geographically segregated from those who proclaim which sites are "in", which could explain how the twain shall never meet.

To find out where current MySpace users are, I adapted an old program of mine which looks up MySpace profiles at random, and ran it throughout the month of June, mining demographic and location information from almost 20,000 US-based private and public profiles who logged in at least once during that month (excluding bands and entities). The resulting sample is representative of the MySpace population. 53% of users identify themselves as women. Of all users below the age of 50, half are 21 years old or younger, and 30% are between the ages of 22 and 30.

After some data cleaning, I looked at the geography at the state level, and compared the percentage of log-ins from each state to the percentage of U.S. Internet users in that state. So, if Texas comprised only 8% of US internet population, but contributed 10% of MySpace log-ins, Texas would register as having a quarter more log-ins than expected. Using these data, I created the map below, with red indicating 20% or more log-ins than expected, light red 10-20% more, green being in line with expectations (+/-10%), light blue is 10-20% less, and dark blue representing 20% or less than predicted. [1]

The map shows that the MySpace users are disproportionately represented in Alaska, Hawai'i, Upland South, Lower South, the Southeast, with Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi reporting over 50% more log-ins than expected.[2] Parts of the Midwest as well as California and New York are in line with expectations. The Northeast is well below expectations with Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island reporting only half of expected log-ins. With this map, we are beginning to see that major concentrations of MySpace users are in states which are not traditionally considered as media centers (with one exception...). [3]

It's almost too tempting to draw a connection to other "red and blue" maps we have seen, but let's stay on the topic of user geography for a second, because the data become even more intriguing when we start looking at the distribution of current MySpace users in cities with at least 100,000 inhabitants. After extensive data cleaning, I constructed the expected log-in ratio by dividing the percentage of log-ins from a city by the percentage of U.S. population in that city. Here is a small excerpt of the resulting list.

We see that most locations where national news and traditional and social media are produced get fewer than expected log-ins, while places like Louisville, Tampa and Dayton clock up twice as many log-ins as expected. The biggest exception to this rule is Atlanta, GA, the home of CNN. Stamford, CT comes last, with only 20% of expected log-ins given its size.

Finally, I considered all 6,500 U.S. locations in my dataset and put them on a heat map. [4] Again, we see MySpace users are under-represented in most large metropolitan areas, with the exception of Atlanta and its suburbs.[8] But, they are over-represented in mid-size cities of the South, Midwest and parts of the East Coast, as well as certain rural areas across country, again pointing to how some people may never meet MySpace users (no doubt you will spot a number of other fascinating insights in the map).

All in all, the hypothesis that MySpace users and the media centers do not overlap seems to hold. Except Atlanta. Why CNN won't report on MySpace users I don't know. The users are there, at their doorstep. Maybe it's time for real MySpace users to speak up? It seems no-one else will.

Notes

[1] There are more elegant ways of deriving the percentage of expected log-ins, but data restrictions have prevented me from calculating them. The mapwas created using this online tool available at.

[2] A lot of MySpace users report living in Las Vegas, NV. Whether that's actually true requires further research.

[3] It would be fantastic to compare this map against Facebook log-ins or geography of bloggers, but I do not have these data. For a visualization based on early 2008 Facebook log-in data, click on the circle on the top-right of this graph to get shading instead of bubbles.

[4] I am extremely indebted to Jeff deBeer at Harvard Business School who wrote the program to create the heat maps. Empty spaces in the map indicate lack of log-in data, no population in the area, or lack of reliable data on population in the area. The colors in this map do not completely match those in the previous map.

[5] When areas of limited use adjoin those of significant use, the map will bleed over. That's how you might see significant use in Manhattan, for example, even though it's really generated by the Bronx and Newark and Union City, NJ. New York City, Queens and Brooklyn all receive fewer than expected log-ins.

Miko?aj Jan Piskorski is an Associate Professor of Strategy and Marvin Bower Fellow at Harvard Business School, where he teaches a second-year elective entitled Competing with Social Networks.

At this year's Fortune Brainstorm TECH, journalist Andy Serwer asked Barry Diller, the chairman and CEO of IAC/InterActiveCorp, somewhat irreverently whether he Tweeted. Diller unabashedly admitted his reluctance to Tweet saying he didn't think people would care if he's going to the dentist. The same question was later posed to Ashton Kutcher, an American actor with over 3 million Twitter followers. He readily admitted to posting up to 100 Tweets a day to @aplusk, and actually remarked that he would tell people about his visit to the dentist.

In categorizing social media, do Barry Diller and Ashton Kutcher represent a generation gap? I don't think so.

The old way of thinking would explain their different mindsets purely on demographics: youth embrace social media, older generations don't. But that's not the whole story. According to eMarketer, 17% of the WWII generation (65+) use Twitter, which is comparable to the 18% of Gen Xers (30-44). In fact those two groups comprise the largest percentages of Twitter users among all generations! So by this logic, Barry Diller should be embracing Twitter just as much as Ashton Kutcher. Something else is going on.

At Ruder Finn, we've identified intent as the key driver of social media. To use these tools more effectively, companies need to step back and look at why consumers are going online. Traditional notions of demographics no longer apply in the online space, where it doesn't matter where you live or what you make or how old or young you are. Intents have become the new demographics. And better understanding online intent will help in aligning business objectives with what consumers want.

In June, Ruder Finn released the results of our inaugural, quarterly survey that looks to answer this exact question of why people go online. The Ruder Finn Intent Index reveals seven core intents: socialize, have fun, learn, express yourself, advocate, do business, and shop. Two particularly interesting findings include:

• More than twice as many people go online to socialize (81%) than to do business (39%) or shop (31%).
• Seniors are going online today for the same reasons younger people are: to have fun (82%) and to socialize (80%).

So how can businesses enter an environment where people are predominantly looking to socialize?

First they need to realize that social media is on everyone's lips, whether they're embracing it or not. So businesses need to determine how social media can help them align their key messages with user intent so as to foster trust and credibility. This intersection has recently been exemplified through the Motrin Mom fiasco and the CDC's swine flu response.

When Motrin launched its controversial commercial targeting baby-sling wearing moms last November, outraged moms immediately spoke up on Twitter and blogs. Their anger became viral faster than Motrin could keep up. They went online with the specific intent to vent and influence opinion. According to the Ruder Finn Intent Index, 62% of users go online to opine while 56% of users do so to influence others. The online activity was not due to the demographic — mothers with young babies — but to their intent, one that extends beyond the traditional demographic lines.

And when rumors spread online about the H1N1 virus back in the spring, we saw how people respond to credible information online and look to social media to provide the answers. Wanting to stay healthy, people were looking for a reliable source to provide accurate information, and the CDC stepped in. Consider that according to the Ruder Finn Intent Index, 79% of users go online to keep informed and that of those, 65% have the specific intent to get news on current events. Through Twitter, the CDC was able to quickly provide updates for an eager public — the CDC son had as many as 65,000 followers on Twitter, reflecting as high an 86% increase.

In understanding how intent drives online traffic, businesses can better determine the strategic points of entry that engage consumers in the two-way conversations they seek. Through such meaningful engagement, businesses can enhance their credibility and strengthen consumer trust in their brands.

Kathy Bloomgarden is co-CEO of Ruder Finn, one of the world's largest public relations agencies, and the author of Trust: The Secret Weapon of Effective Business Leaders.